A network carrying wireless, finance, electricity services and the like has a higher requirement of performance of a transmission network, such as time delay, jitter, packet loss rate, etc. In a wireless mobile carrier network, a time delay of data transmission between a base station and a radio network controller (Radio Network Controller, RNC) is generally required not to exceed 10 ms. If the time delay exceeds the range, service damage will be caused. Clients hope that an alarm can be given immediately and corresponding protection switching can be made.
At present, for a monitoring method of network performance quality (performance parameters such as time delay, jitter, packet loss rate and the like), taking the time delay as an example, it is only used for feedback of real-time or timing time delay data of a network in application, neither making prediction of future data according to current data trend nor analyzing historical data, and it per se does not have functions of time delay prediction and alarm and a function of making a protection switching function based on prediction data.
There are two kinds of uncertainty for network time delay: one is randomness: when a single message is forwarded in a network, a large time delay or a small time delay probably be produced, which has a certain randomness due to the influence of factors such as transient failure of a forwarding chip, transient instability of link quality and the like; the other is fuzziness: a size of the time delay itself is relative, so the fuzziness may exists in the definition of “large time delay”. Therefore, current time delay algorithm may not completely reflect quality of the network time delay, but only an average value of the network time delay or an expected value of probability distribution. However, a clients' requirement such as “the time delay being not allowed to exceed 10 ms” is an upper limit value, and even though the expected value does not exceed the upper limit value, it may not be guaranteed that time delays of all message will not exceed the upper limit.
If an alarm or protection switching is not performed until the time delay of a link is detected to exceed the upper limit value, it is actually late since damage to a service has been caused. Therefore, the existing monitoring method of network performance quality cannot raise an alarm or make protection switching timely.